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Mexico inflation rises to 3.75 % in October; Banxico leaves rate at 6.25 %

Main image: supermarket aisle in Tulum, Quintana Roo (illustrative image). Photo: Reiseuhu / Unsplash.

November 9, 2026. Annual inflation in Mexico rose to 3.75 % in October, from 3.45 % in September, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, INEGI). The figure beat the 3.65 % expected by economists polled by Reuters and is the highest level since May, according to the weekly ZETA. It comes four days after the Bank of Mexico (Banco de México) cut its rate to 6.25 %.

The figure remains within Banxico's variability range, from 2 % to 4 % around its 3 % target. For a company that imports, the most useful data is in the breakdown.

October inflation in Mexico: electricity, air transport and tomatillo

Over the month, prices rose 0.65 %. Infobae reports that electricity rose 18.51 % due to the end of the summer subsidy in 18 cities, air transport 26.36 % and tomatillo 35.58 %. According to the same outlet, fruits and vegetables have accumulated an annual increase of 13.19 %.

Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile prices, stood at 3.80 % annually, up from 3.75 % in September. Within it there are two distinct paces:

  • Services: 4.32 % annual and 0.44 % monthly.
  • Goods: 3.25 % annual and 0.22 % monthly.

Our reading: many imported products fall under goods, and they are rising more slowly than services.

Chart of inflation in Mexico in October 2026: headline 3.75 %, core 3.80 % and Banxico rate 6.25 %
Inflation in Mexico in October 2026 and Banxico rate. Chart: Ciaespinoza.com with data from INEGI and Banco de México.

Banxico cuts to 6.25 % and signals a prolonged pause

On November 5, Banxico's Governing Board cut the interbank interest rate by 0.25 points, from 6.50 % to 6.25 %, by three votes to two. In its statement, the central bank said that "keeping the rate at the level reached for a prolonged period will support the convergence of inflation to its target". It also raised its headline inflation forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to 3.7 % and expects it to return to 3 % by the fourth quarter of 2027.

Banxico acknowledged that the peso has depreciated since its previous decision. It considered that the pass-through to prices would be limited by slack in the economy, although it cited a larger depreciation as an upside risk to inflation.

Among the analysts cited by ZETA, Andrés Abadía of Pantheon Macroeconomics expects the rate to stay at 6.25 % in December and during the first half of 2027. William Jackson of Capital Economics considers it very unlikely that Banxico will change its future guidance.

China-Mexico opportunity: import costs with exchange rate and fixed price

This figure lines up with what China published this morning. There, producer prices rose 5.7 % in October, mainly due to energy and metals, while finished consumer goods remained stable at the factory gate.

Our reading: for a Mexican SME that buys in China, the final cost depends on three things that can be controlled: the factory price, the exchange rate at the time of payment, and freight. With a peso that Banxico describes as depreciated and rates the bank expects to stay stable for some time, it is worth locking in as much as possible before committing inventory.

  • Request quotes with DDP pricing in pesos or dollars with an expiry date, so you know how much the product costs delivered to Mexico.
  • Schedule supplier payments on known dates and discuss a currency hedge with your bank if the amount is high.
  • Prioritize finished consumer products, whose price in China stays stable, and negotiate more carefully anything that contains a lot of metal or electronics.

At Ciaespinoza.com we help you compare suppliers and inspect goods before shipment. The quotation and supplier search in China costs 1,737.68 pesos and the 8-hour quality inspection costs 6,243.12 pesos, both including VAT according to the store as of November 9, 2026. You can see all services in Services in China.

If you want to review a quote or calculate the cost of importing a product, write to us on WhatsApp at +1 (555) 967-3577 or by email at info@ciaespinoza.com.

Sources: Infobae México, with data from INEGI (November 9, 2026); Semanario ZETA (November 9, 2026); Banco de México, monetary policy announcement (November 5, 2026).

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