Fábrica en Wenzhou, China, con cajas y maquinaria

China's PMI falls to 49.3 in October; high-tech remains in expansion

Main image: factory with boxes and machinery in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, China. Photo: Bing Zhang / Unsplash.

Saturday, October 31, 2026. China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.3 points in October, 0.8 points less than in September, according to data published today by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). A reading below 50 indicates contraction. High-tech and equipment manufacturers continued to expand, at 51.3 and 50.6 points.

For the Mexican buyer, the figure helps read the timing of your suppliers: which sectors have full order books and which are looking for customers.

China's PMI in October: which sectors grow and which slow down

According to the NBS statement, these were the main manufacturing sub-indices:

  • Production: 49.8, 1.9 points less than in September.
  • New orders: 49.4, 1.1 points less.
  • Large companies: 50.2, still expanding; medium-sized, 48.4; small, 47.5.
  • Consumer goods: 48.8, 1.9 points less, according to the 21st Century Business Herald.
  • High technology: 51.3; equipment and machinery: 50.6, both above the threshold.

According to China Daily, NBS statistician Huo Lihui attributed the decline partly to demand being brought forward ahead of the National Day holiday in early October, and to a changing international environment. The manufacturers' production and business expectations sub-index stood at 53.4, a reading the paper describes as relatively optimistic.

Chart of China's manufacturing PMI in October 2026: overall 49.3, high-tech 51.3, equipment 50.6, consumer goods 48.8, new orders 49.4, raw material prices 56.8 and sale prices 51.7
PMI manufacturing sub-indices for China in October 2026. Chart: Ciaespinoza.com based on data from the NBS, China Daily and 21st Century Business Herald.

Factory prices in China: still up, but rising more slowly

The raw material price index stood at 56.8, 4 points less than in September, and the factory sale price index at 51.7, 2.3 points less, according to the 21st Century Business Herald. Both remain above 50, which means more companies reported increases than decreases, though in a smaller proportion than the previous month.

Outside manufacturing, the non-manufacturing activity index fell to 49.7 and the services index stood at 50.0. The composite index, which combines both, stood at 49.7, according to the NBS.

China–Mexico opportunity: negotiating with factories looking for orders

Our reading: when new orders fall, especially in consumer goods and in medium and small companies, many suppliers are more willing to negotiate minimum volumes, delivery times or payment terms. At the same time, price indices remain on an upward path, so it is not wise to assume that the price will fall.

Some recommendations to take advantage of the moment without taking risks:

  • Request quotes from several suppliers for the same product and compare the total price delivered to Mexico, not just the factory price.
  • Negotiate in writing the validity period of the quote, because raw material costs keep moving.
  • If the supplier is a medium or small company, verify its real capacity and situation before paying a large deposit.
  • Carry out a pre-shipment inspection, especially if you negotiated a lower price, to confirm that quality is maintained.

Our product search and quotation in China service costs $1,737.68 MXN including IVA (price checked in our store on October 31, 2026), and the 8-hour inspection in China costs $6,243.12 MXN including IVA, same date. If your interest is in equipment and automation, sectors that are still expanding, you can read our note on industrial robot production in China.

To get quotes from Chinese suppliers this year-end, write to us on WhatsApp at +1 (555) 967-3577 or to info@ciaespinoza.com.

Sources: NBS and CFLP via The Paper, “2026年10月中国采购经理指数运行情况”, October 31, 2026; China Daily, “China's manufacturing PMI falls to 49.3 in October”, October 31, 2026; 21st Century Business Herald, “国家统计局：10月高技术制造业PMI为51.3%”, October 31, 2026.

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